The rapid spread of COVID-19 shows the power of pathogens and the lack of preparedness humanity has in our ability to mount a rapid response to the spread of previously unknown pathogens. The financial toll to the world’s economies will be enormous, but the impact in lives, and long term mental health will be even greater.
Here in the US we have lost vital weeks of proactive action because of the fear of financial impact and the result of anti-science narrative from people in power.
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf?fbclid=IwAR1AWr6AHz24s5w3gJ0pjFcOmAem4FjZrg6bBcky6pb7Uf1vnvfyYfZ5c9w
This case study from the Imperial College in the UK goes into extreme detail of why it is necessary to undergo suppression strategy. This is particularly true in the US where we don’t have extra capacity in critical care units, and where our medical professionals, support staff, and infrastructure are already taxed.
What does this all mean? If we want to avoid the worst case scenario, of 4-6 million Americans dying from allowing the virus to run its course, then we must implement stringent isolation strategies for the population. Per Francis Collins, in his interview with the Atlantic posted above:
““That means we all need to take responsibility, even if we are thinking of ourselves as relatively impervious to this illness. It would be easy for a young person to look at the data and go, ‘Well, you know, what if I get it? I’m probably going to be fine.’ But you have to think of yourself also as a vessel for other vulnerable people. Even if you don’t think you need to do this kind of isolation for your own good, you’re doing it for the rest of the country—and particularly for your grandparents and other people who are in a vulnerable state.”
And Collins also offered a big-picture perspective for Americans. “I think people need to be prepared that we are going to be in this space for more time than they will like,” he said. “In many ways, the best sign that we’re making progress will be that the duration of the epidemic goes on a little longer. That’s what flattening the curve means.”
We don’t have time to wait for our leaders to order a mandatory lockdown, we should all be self-isolating and saving our resources and efforts into protecting our neighbors, families and communities. Doing anything otherwise would be irresponsible and heartless. We are taxing our medical professionals, who will also start getting sick. We are taxing our infrastructure, and we are causing permanent harm to society by risking additional deaths. Yes, this pandemic will likely extend for many months. We need to make sure it does so we don’t see countless millions die needlessly.
We must push our elected officials to mandate the closure of all public spaces except for essential services. We must ensure this because if we lose our front line healthcare workers this gets much, much worse. We must do this because it is the morally right thing to do, to defend the lives of our communities by flattening the curve.
The science behind this is sound. We must act now if we wish to save lives. We live in a time of technology that allows us to carry on work and school remotely, where we don’t need to expose others to the dangers of this pathogen. The only thing stopping us is our own hubris and ignorance.